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July 26.2025

2 Minutes Read

Navigating Bitcoin's New Risk: Analyzing Potential Drop to $115K

Bitcoin is losing its bullish momentum: Is a drop to $115K next?

Is Bitcoin's Bullish Run At Risk?

Bitcoin has had a remarkable journey this year, but is it heading for a downturn? Recent market indicators suggest a potential dip could be looming, especially with the price hitting crucial resistance levels. Key metrics, such as a hidden bearish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the existence of a CME gap, all point to a possibly rocky path ahead for BTC holders.

The Hidden Bearish Divergence Explained

When analyzing Bitcoin's performance against the RSI, it appears that while prices have been making higher highs, the momentum indicator is failing to follow suit. This 'hidden bearish divergence' typically signals that the bullish momentum is weakening, a leading indicator that often precedes a price correction. In fact, history shows a similar pattern unfolded in March 2024, resulting in a significant drop in Bitcoin's price shortly thereafter.

Understanding the CME Gap

Another compelling factor to consider is the CME gap, which currently sits between $114,000 and $115,635. These gaps are crucial in trading as they represent price levels where transactions did not occur, often leading investors to cover these voids in subsequent sessions. Historical data shows that Bitcoin frequently fills these gaps, meaning that a pullback could be imminent as traders anticipate the price retracing to cover this untraded range. In 2025 alone, seven out of nine CME gaps have already been filled, raising the stakes for concerned investors.

Market Cyclicality and Distribution Zones

Beyond the RSI and CME gap, Bitcoin’s current positioning demonstrates characteristics of market cyclicality. It appears to be oscillating within a distribution zone—a phase where bullish momentum wanes, and the market starts to consolidate before potentially reversing. With several indicators pointing towards short-term volatility, investors need to stay vigilant and prepare for what lies ahead.

So, What Does This Mean For You?

As Bitcoin continues to navigate these critical indicators, it’s essential for investors to assess their strategies. Understanding these markers of potential downturn can offer valuable insights into when to enter or exit the market. This might be the perfect opportunity to reevaluate your investment plan as Bitcoin’s trajectory becomes increasingly unpredictable.

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Navigating Bitcoin's New Risk: Analyzing Potential Drop to $115K

Is Bitcoin's Bullish Run At Risk?

The Hidden Bearish Divergence Explained

Understanding the CME Gap

Market Cyclicality and Distribution Zones

So, What Does This Mean For You?

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